Did You Fall Off the Planet or Something?

No, actually I didn't.  Though with my last blog post being nearly six weeks old, I can understand how one may have come to that conclusion.

So what have I been doing?  Well, first off, my husband and I went into overdrive looking for a new home, so I was checking the MLS rental listings daily and Craigslist several times a day.  Not expecting much (good thing, too!) I also checked in to see what was for sale in southern New Hampshire, and only received further confirmation that the housing market is still delusional.  We went to look at several (rental) properties, most of which left us thinking, "Yeah, it could probably work," but pretty unenthusiastic overall.  However Craigslist did come through for us, and we found a beautiful home in Nashua that met all our requirements.  Office space for Tom, playroom for the kids, two-car garage for Tom, even space for me to have an office/craft room!  Walking through it with the then-tenants Tom quietly asked me what I thought of it, and I answered without hesitation, "I love it--I want this house!"  Tom apparently felt the same way, because he transmitted our already-filled-out-and-scanned rental application to the owner from his phone before we even left the house.  We were approved (cats and all), and then had to pack up the old house and plan our move here, which we accomplished nearly two weeks ago.  We're still moving the last of our crap valuable belongings here, and I think settling in is going to be a months-long process.  But we've got a home now, not just a house, and one with a fenced-in backyard which has enabled me to experience the joy of saying to my kids, "Just go out and play!"

On the writing side of things, I've been spending most of my time and effort keeping up with my Quiet Devotions blog, which is a daily devotional based on one of the lectionary readings for that day.  The key word is 'daily,' and, with the move especially, it's been all I can do to keep up with it.  I'm also planning on moving that blog over to the Quiet Publications website, which I'm still building and where I'll eventually be publishing other articles and selling bible studies, worship resources, and perhaps some books I've written (will write).  So yes, I've been spending time building the Quiet Publications website, too.

I'm also stealing some time here and there writing one of those bible studies that will eventually be offered for sale, but it's a priority right now because the idea for it came from the women's retreat I attended last November.  Some of the women and I were talking one day, and one of them went on a bit of a rant about John's gospel, which led to me making an offhand comment that they all found fascinating, which led to a brief conversation about why the gospels were written, which led to them informing me that I had to teach a bible study on that, which led to me writing a bible study called 'Gospel Agendas,' which I'll be teaching at my church sometime after Easter.

Oh yes, I've also been the primary caregiver for a two- and a three-year old.

Hopefully things will stabilize a bit here soon, and I'll get back to writing the next installment in my series on Christian Families, Motherhood, and Womanhood.  Until then, though, thanks for sticking with me, and watch for news about Quiet Publications.

Housing Prices Still Not Making Sense

My husband and I are looking to buy a decent house in a decent neighborhood for a reasonable price, but we're having trouble finding such a thing.  There are decent houses in decent neighborhoods, but their prices are not reasonable.  For all that housing prices have fallen over the past few years, I believe that they still have further to go.

How can I say this when houses have already lost anywhere from 20 to 60% of their values?  Because they were inflated to more than that during the bubble, and incomes haven't risen significantly over the last decade.

Here's the thing.  According to the Wall Street Journal, a household shouldn't plan to spend more than 28% of its gross monthly income on mortgage/property taxes/maintenance/PMI.  (This is a fairly common rule of thumb.)  In 2000, the median household income in Nashua, NH (where we're looking) was $51,969.  Let's assume that household also had a monthly debt load of $500 (between car payments, student loans, and credit card minimum payments), and savings sufficient to put down 20% of the purchase price.  Using the Wall Street Journal's mortgage calculator, that household income would qualify to purchase a home that cost up to $141,365*.  In 2000, the median house in Nashua only cost $132,200, so the average household could purchase the average house, and then some.  In 2009 (the most recent year covered by city-data), the median household income in Nashua had risen to $58,789.  Using those same assumptions, that household could purchase a home that cost up to $181,942*.  That's a problem, since the average house in Nashua in 2009 cost $248,500.  In order for the average household to purchase the average house at that price, the median household income would need to be closer to $69,000.  Even assuming our household is completely debt free, the maximum house they could afford would be $205,997, still well below the median.  Neither housing prices nor incomes have changed much since 2009.

As much as sellers and realtors don't want to admit it, a house (or anything else, for that matter) is only worth what a purchaser will pay for it.  As long as the average house is out of reach for the average purchaser, it's overpriced.  Unless incomes go up significantly in the very near future, housing prices still have a ways to fall.  In Nashua, it's looking like another 27%.

Maybe my husband and I are better off continuing to rent for now.


* I assumed a 30 year fixed mortgage at 8% in 2000 and 5.5% in 2009, both of which are historically accurate.  The tax rate was roughly 2.1% in both years.